Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Significant Obstacles in the Selection Process
A number of figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to head off any potential leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.
