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Well. From one perspective, the nation's protracted campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to host the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to many people who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a conference obstructed from the top if his administration managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.